The Greatest Strength of the Semiconductor Industry… People (or lack thereof) by Claus Aasholm

By Victoria Fellows

24. Mai 2025

From Obscurity…
to a central role in global economics and security, the semiconductor industry has undergone a remarkable transformation. Once overlooked, it’s now the topic of dinner conversations, with questions about Nvidia’s stock price, ASML’s dominance, and industry leadership shifts. This shift reflects the industry’s critical importance to future economic development, fueled by the AI revolution and the U.S.’s push to bring semiconductor manufacturing stateside.

A Looming Talent Crunch?
Predictions suggest a significant talent shortage in the semiconductor sector. Deloitte estimates that by 2030, the industry will need over a million additional workers globally, while McKinsey emphasises retention strategies like expanding the talent pool and improving employee value propositions. The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) projects workforce growth of 115,000 jobs by 2030, with many at risk of going unfilled due to inadequate degree completion rates. However, these projections hinge on assumptions, such as U.S. policies on subsidies and immigration, which may not align with political realities.

Current Market Dynamics
The semiconductor industry is in an upcycle, yet headcount growth has stagnated since late 2022. Companies are primarily hiring to offset attrition rather than scaling up. This trend diverges from typical cycles, where growth accompanies increased demand. Nvidia, a key driver of recent revenue growth, has steadily expanded its workforce but has yet to significantly influence industry-wide employment figures. The foundry market, led by TSMC, has seen headcount increases in Taiwan, the U.S., and elsewhere. Conversely, integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) like Intel are shedding jobs, highlighting a shift in manufacturing dynamics. Despite TSMC’s recruitment efforts, the overall industry headcount remains flat, indicating limited hiring appetite or cautious optimisation by companies.

Employee Trends and Recruitment
Employee retention has become a focal point. While attrition rates have declined, signalling stability, recruitment remains essential to replace retirees and meet demand. The workforce’s average age has increased, and tenure has lengthened, reflecting fewer young hires. However, TSMC continues to attract talent, partly by increasing compensation, particularly in high-demand regions.
Recruitment data suggests minimal pressure on hiring packages, except in software development for fields like AI and machine learning. These areas show increased offers, but overall, salary growth for mid-level employees remains flat. This indicates that the industry’s stagnant headcount may result from deliberate strategic decisions rather than a talent shortage.

Conclusion
The current semiconductor upturn appears profit-driven, dominated by a few AI-centric companies. Nvidia captures a significant share of operating profits, while TSMC leads in foundry earnings. Despite fears of a talent shortage, evidence points to cautious hiring strategies rather than insufficient talent. For the first time, the industry faces an upturn without significant headcount growth, signalling a shift in how companies navigate cyclical changes. Whether this strategy can sustain long-term growth amid emerging challenges remains to be seen.

Written by Claus Aasholm

https://clausaasholm.substack.com/

Claus is an expert at peeling back the layers of polished corporate messaging. His curiosity drives him to explore semiconductor companies, focusing on the complexities of their supply chains—both upstream and downstream. He compares companies to their competitors, uncovering key insights that often go unnoticed.