The Big Gap by Dr. Manfred Schlett

By Victoria Fellows

May 17, 2025

Some time ago a few analysts asked for my advice on whether NVIDIA’s stock prices would continue to rise or if competitors like AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, or tech giants such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft would gain significant market share in AI chipsets. In preparing for these discussions, I stumbled across data that surprised me and clarified my conclusions.

Having spent years in the semiconductor industry, I’ve closely followed NVIDIA’s strategic moves, either as a partner or competitor. From NVIDIA + ICERA phone platforms to their graphics accelerators in automotive dashboards, server farms, and consumer PC graphics cards, their ambition was always evident. However, their current growth and dominance in AI are unprecedented.

To put it simply, NVIDIA is far ahead of its competition, making it difficult to foresee how others might catch up. Consider NVIDIA’s financial growth: its annual revenue hovered around $10 billion for years until the COVID-19 pandemic, which drove sales to around $30 billion. AMD, in comparison, grew its pre-pandemic revenue from $8 billion to about $20 billion. Both companies benefited from the increased demand for datacenter hardware, with AMD focusing on server CPUs and NVIDIA excelling in GPU-based parallel processing. The game-changer, however, has been AI. With the introduction of the H100 chipset and subsequent advancements like the H200, NVIDIA has established itself as the leader in AI hardware. Its revenue surged past $30 billion in 2023 and is projected to exceed $100 billion by 2024/25, driven by the AI boom. By contrast, AMD’s new MI300 AI chipset is expected to generate $5 billion in revenue in 2024. This creates a staggering 70:5 revenue ratio in the AI chipset segment, illustrating NVIDIA’s dominance. Similar disparities exist with other competitors.

What does this tell us? The semiconductor business thrives on scale, and NVIDIA’s massive lead puts it in a position to dominate. Competitors like Google, Microsoft, AWS, and Qualcomm are targeting niche markets, emphasizing specialized cloud services, better power efficiency, or lower costs. However, NVIDIA’s scale, established customer base, robust software ecosystem, and proven track record make it challenging to envision a significant shift in market share anytime soon.

Written by Dr. Manfred Schlett

https://www.linkedin.com/in/manfredschlett/

Dr. Manfred Schlett is a distinguished expert with an unparalleled depth of experience in the automotive and telecommunications industries. Renowned for his ability to blend technical insight with strategic vision, he has spent his career shaping the future of cutting-edge technologies and global business practices.